Windows 10 support ends in just over a month, but close to 50% of PC installations are still running the old OS, according to PC makers.
In earnings calls last week, Dell and HP executives said that the PC upgrade cycle to Windows 11 was still ongoing, and would continue through this year and 2026.
“When we look at the total conversion, we are behind what we have been in other years,” said Enrique Lores, CEO of HP, during last week’s earnings call.
The PC refreshes are happening first in enterprises. It “takes time” in the small-and-medium business segment, Lores said. “We think this process is going to be extended,” he said.
SMB customers may end up buying 12-month Windows 10 extended support packages offered by Microsoft before upgrading PCs, Lores said.
Microsoft’s Extended Security Updates (ESU) program for Windows 10 is available in one-year increments until October 2028. Businesses must pay $61 per device for the first year, $122 per device the second year, and $244 per device the third year.
“Many businesses, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, have not switched to Windows 11 due to tight budgets or because the upgrade does not offer sufficient benefits,” said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner.
Companies taking advantage of Microsoft’s extended security updates will transition to Windows 11 gradually over the next year, Atwal said.
AI PCs edge in
HP’s consumer PC shipments in the third quarter were up by 8%, while commercial PC shipments were up 3%, compared to the same quarter last year. Revenue for HP’s Personal Systems Group, which deals in PCs, was up 6% year-over-year.
AI PCs made up about 25% of the mix, which was “a full quarter ahead of target,” Lores said.
In comparison, Dell’s consumer revenue declined by 7%, but the company generated more profits on higher PC prices, said Jeff Clarke, vice chairman and chief operating officer for Dell Technologies, during the company’s earnings call last week.
“We expect moderate growth as the PC refresh continues, driven by an aging installed base and the Windows 10 end of life,” Clarke said.
There are still hundreds of millions of PCs that can’t run Windows 11, and “there’s an opportunity for Windows 10 PCs that can’t run Windows 11 to continue to be upgraded,” Clarke said.
Global PC shipments grew by 6.5% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2025, but Dell’s shipments declined by 3.2%, according to IDC. Dell ranked third behind Lenovo and HP, whose shipments went up during the quarter.
Clarke didn’t mention “AI PCs” per se during the earnings call, except for one reference to “AI-ready devices.” He talked more about opportunities presented by profitable enterprise AI servers with Nvidia GPUs.
On the flipside, AI PCs dominated HP’s earnings call, as the company sees the market as a big opportunity.
“The demand for AI PCs is going to be driven by applications, and we are seeing more… applications taking advantage of the new capabilities,” Lores said, giving examples of Zoom and Adobe making use of AI chips in PCs.
Gartner expects AI PC shipments to hit 77.8 million units this year, making up 31% of the global PC market. The research firm projects that shipments will reach 143 million units in 2026 and account for more than 50% of PC sales.
Most AI PC benefits can still be achieved on non-AI PCs. But that will change when software can take advantage of on-device AI processing, Atwal said. “This will enable more advanced, real-time features, especially for tasks involving personal or private data, leveraging AI in future PC experiences,” he said.
PC prices on the rise
HP’s Lores said there is roughly a 5% to 10% price increase on AI PCs certified as Copilot+ by Microsoft compared to units without the AI chips.
PC makers are also raising the average selling price of PCs due to tariffs placed on goods imported into the US. That means customers can expect PC prices to go up.
Baseline tariffs on PCs made in China prompted brands to move production outside China, said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager at IDC.
“There are costs associated with moving the supply chain, and these impact profitability for these companies in addition to the tariff impact, which is why prices are expected to rise,” Ubrani said.
Some tariff exemptions were made for PCs from outside of China, but the PC price rise is inevitable, Ubrani said.
HP and Dell have until now managed to offset the impact of tariffs by increasing non-tariff inventory and shifting production to countries with lower tariffs, Gartner’s Atwal said.
These strategies mitigated price increases, but these options are no longer available, according to Atwal. “As a result, both companies will need to raise prices to compensate for the remaining tariff impact,” he said.
Trade-related costs forced HP to move production out of China and to the US, Thailand, Mexico, and Vietnam. Dell is also making a one-time investment to move production sites.
