Artificial intelligence models that can discover drugs and write code still fail at puzzles a lay person can master in minutes. This phenomenon sits at the heart of the challenge of artificial general intelligence (AGI). Can todayās AI revolution produce models that rival or surpass human intelligence across all domains? If so, what underlying enablersāwhether hardware, software, or the orchestration of bothāwould be needed to power them?
Dario Amodei, co-founder of Anthropic, predicts some form of āpowerful AIā could come as early as 2026, with properties that include Nobel Prize-level domain intelligence; the ability to switch between interfaces like text, audio, and the physical world; and the autonomy to reason toward goals, rather than responding to questions and prompts as they do now. Sam Altman, chief executive of OpenAI, believes AGI-like properties are already ācoming into view,ā unlocking a societal transformation on par with electricity and the internet. He credits progress to continuous gains in training, data, and compute, along with falling costs, and a socioeconomic value that is
āsuper-exponential.ā
