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    Home - Disruption Lab - The Unexpected Winners of Trump’s Trade War
    Disruption Lab

    The Unexpected Winners of Trump’s Trade War

    TechurzBy TechurzSeptember 4, 2025Updated:May 11, 2026No Comments4 Mins Read
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    The Unexpected Winners of Trump’s Trade War
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    But Shein and Temu didn’t stop marketing altogether. Instead, both companies chose to shift their ad budgets abroad to regions where the geopolitical risks were perceived to be lower and growth opportunities more abundant. Shein spent 22 percent of its overall advertising spend in the US market during the second quarter, compared to 39 percent in the first three months of 2025, according to Sensor Tower. Temu’s US spend, meanwhile, went from 47 percent to merely 9 percent. As a result, Shein and Temu’s sales in countries other than the US, such as the UK, have surged to record highs.

    But the dip didn’t last long. After hitting rock bottom in June, both companies began ramping back up their US ad spending in July, Shah’s data shows. In August, Shein spent more on marketing in the US than it did in August 2024.

    The figures reflect the fact that the Chinese platforms had figured out a new playbook: continue shipping products despite the tariffs, pass some costs to consumers, and stay competitive by focusing on building independent supply chains and warehouse networks that can help keep shipping costs down.

    App store charts suggest that the new strategy is working. After a brief slide in popularity earlier this year, Shein and Temu were now once again ranking within the top 5 apps in the shopping category of the US Apple App Store and Google Play store as of Wednesday.

    Temu and Shein did not immediately reply to requests for comment from WIRED.

    Behind the Curve

    The big Chinese platforms had been preparing for the end of de minimis for more than a year and were able to quickly recalibrate their logistics strategies when the tariffs finally went into effect. The same cannot be said for independent shops.

    Denys, the Ukrainian Etsy shop owner, says he’s anticipating needing to raise the price of his products to stay afloat. “If the new tariffs remain, prices will inevitably increase by at least that 10 percent in the future,” he says.

    He has recently begun working with a local Ukrainian shipping company called NovaPost, which stepped in to help sellers navigate customs procedures and pledged to shoulder part of the fee increases for local companies. The situation in Ukraine is far less chaotic than in other parts of the world, where many postal companies have completely halted sending packages to the US because of ongoing confusion over the details of Trump’s trade policies.

    I think we all benefit from being able to shop from small vendors around the world. Over the past few years, I’ve purchased a 3D-printed topographic map from Canada, art prints from Germany, and Denys’ woodwork from Ukraine. I didn’t set out to shop from foreign brands, but modern global ecommerce platforms gave me access to a wider range of products, which were often sold at lower prices than the goods in nearby retail stores. Short of learning carpentry myself, Denys’ Etsy shop in Ukraine is probably the best option for getting affordable customized woodwork to my home in New York City.

    But with the end of de minimis, many Americans might choose to cut back on buying artisanal goods and other nonessential items from abroad. If that happens, small sellers will be the ones hit the hardest. “This mostly affects impulse buying and then things we don’t need,” Juozas Kaziukėnas, an ecommerce platform analyst, told my colleague Boone Ashworth. “It’s not affecting the price of milk, for example.”

    I’m still waiting for my wooden slats, which Denys says should finally clear customs soon. I’m hoping that businesses like his are able to survive in this new ecosystem. Otherwise, I might have no choice but to take up carpentry, but who knows how much I would have to pay in tariffs on my new woodworking tools?

    This is an edition of Zeyi Yang and Louise Matsakis’ Made in China newsletter. Read previous newsletters here.

    Trade Trumps unexpected war Winners
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